Valladolid 1-0 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almeria at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Valladolid welcome Almeria to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 La Liga matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Valladolid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Almeria have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Almeria's 1.33 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Valladolid's 0.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Valladolid trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Almeria trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valladolid 33% and Almeria 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Valladolid 67% | Almeria 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.06 xG and Almeria 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.756 / defence 1.335 | Almeria attack 0.851 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.190. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Valladolid games / 3 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 29% | Draw 28% | Almeria 43%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Almeria 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almeria as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almeria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Valladolid 33% | Almeria 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 29% | Draw 28% | Almeria 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Valladolid 1.06 / Almeria 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.756 / def 1.335 | Almeria attack 0.851 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Almeria (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Almeria xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Almeria kick off?
Valladolid vs Almeria kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Almeria?
Valladolid 1 - 0 Almeria.
Where is Valladolid vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Almeria part of?
Valladolid vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 29% chance of winning, Almeria a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Valladolid and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Almeria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valladolid and Almeria in?
Valladolid (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-D-L. Almeria (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.76) and Almeria's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
29%
3.46
28%
3.59
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.41
1.35
Almeria xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.35 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Valladolid have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Valladolid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almeria's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Almeria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Almeria are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Goals in Recent Form
Valladolid are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 100%.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Early Season
Almeria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Almeria in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Almeria have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Valladolid
1
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Almeria?
From 2 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 1, Almeria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when Almeria 0-0 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Almeria?
Valladolid have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valladolid at 33%, Almeria at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Valladolid and 67% for Almeria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Valladolid's games and 100% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valladolid vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Valladolid's matches and 67% of Almeria's.
Do Valladolid and Almeria tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Almeria in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Almeria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Almeria 1-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.06 xG and Almeria 1.35 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almeria landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.76 / defence 1.33 against Almeria attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 29% | Draw 28% | Almeria 43%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Valladolid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 67%, Almeria 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Almeria's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Almeria arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Valladolid winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valladolid conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Almeria managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.