Sevilla 1-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sevilla vs Valladolid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sevilla and Valladolid meet at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in La Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 August 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sevilla's home record at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán: 5W 4D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sevilla are significantly better at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán than their overall form suggests.
Valladolid have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 La Liga outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Valladolid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Sevilla's 1.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Valladolid's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.52 xG and Valladolid 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.081 / defence 0.946 | Valladolid attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.128. Data: 39 Sevilla games / 1 Valladolid games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sevilla 51% | Draw 28% | Valladolid 21%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Valladolid 4.76. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 51% | Draw 28% | Valladolid 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Sevilla 1.52 / Valladolid 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.081 / def 0.946 | Valladolid attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Valladolid xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Valladolid kick off?
Sevilla vs Valladolid kicked off at 21:00 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Valladolid?
Sevilla 1 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Sevilla vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Valladolid part of?
Sevilla vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 51% chance of winning, Valladolid a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sevilla and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Valladolid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sevilla and Valladolid in?
Sevilla (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Valladolid (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (1.08) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.85x) against Sevilla's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.58
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.43
0.91
Valladolid xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
5%
21.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.91 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Valladolid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sevilla's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valladolid, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Valladolid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Sevilla against 0.00 for Valladolid. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Sevilla are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Valladolid in 0%.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Early Season
Valladolid
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sevilla have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sevilla won 0-4 on 16 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valladolid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sevilla
1
Draws
0
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Valladolid have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Valladolid 0-4 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Valladolid?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Sevilla's recent matches and 0% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sevilla's matches and 100% of Valladolid's.
Do Sevilla and Valladolid tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla and Valladolid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 2, as Sevilla and Valladolid drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.52 xG and Valladolid 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Valladolid attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 51% | Draw 28% | Valladolid 21%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 100%, Valladolid 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 0.00 PPG, Valladolid 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sevilla conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Valladolid scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.