Sevilla 2-1 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sevilla host Real Betis at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sevilla stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Betis have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sevilla 2.00 PPG, Real Betis 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sevilla have won 1, Real Betis 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Sevilla winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sevilla in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Real Betis in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 44% versus Real Betis 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 28% | Real Betis 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.54 xG and Real Betis 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.167 / defence 0.981 | Real Betis attack 1.283 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.162. Real Betis have an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Sevilla games / 25 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 38% | Draw 26% | Real Betis 35%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Real Betis 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sevilla are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Sevilla 50% | Real Betis 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 38% | Draw 26% | Real Betis 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Sevilla 1.54 / Real Betis 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.167 / def 0.981 | Real Betis attack 1.283 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Real Betis xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Real Betis kick off?
Sevilla vs Real Betis kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Real Betis?
Sevilla 2 - 1 Real Betis.
Where is Sevilla vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Real Betis part of?
Sevilla vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 38% chance of winning, Real Betis a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sevilla and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Real Betis?
Record (1 meetings): Sevilla 1W | Draws 0 | Real Betis 0W.
What form are Sevilla and Real Betis in?
Sevilla (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Real Betis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (1.17) and Real Betis's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.79
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sevilla xG
Total xG
3.00
1.46
Real Betis xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
9%
11.23
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.46 for Real Betis, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Sevilla have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 14W 9D 2L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis's form line: 14W 4D 7L from 25 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 2.04 PPG, Real Betis on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 2.50 PPG from 12 outings (9W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.04 PPG overall — Sevilla are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Real Betis have gone 7W 2D 3L from 12 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.88 scored and 1.20 conceded. Real Betis's attacking output running into Sevilla's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 14W 9D 2L in their last 25 games (2.04 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 14W 4D 7L in their last 25 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Real Betis away?
Sevilla's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 2.50 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Real Betis in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sevilla's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sevilla
5
Draws
2
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Real Betis have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Real Betis 2-2 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Real Betis?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 50%, Real Betis 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sevilla) and 58% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sevilla's recent matches and 58% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sevilla's recent games and 58% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Real Betis tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Real Betis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Real Betis 2-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.54 xG and Real Betis 1.46 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Real Betis attack 1.28 / defence 1.16, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 38% | Draw 26% | Real Betis 35%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 28%, Real Betis 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Betis's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 2.04 PPG, Real Betis 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.