Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Real Madrid (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Real Madrid face Rayo Vallecano.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu to take on Real Madrid. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Madrid stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Real Madrid are significantly better at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Rayo Vallecano have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Real Madrid are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Real Madrid hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Rayo Vallecano, with 4 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Real Madrid a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Real Madrid trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 72% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Rayo Vallecano trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 52% versus Rayo Vallecano 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 58% | Rayo Vallecano 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.44 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.378 / defence 0.758 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.729 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.118. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rayo Vallecano bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Real Madrid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Real Madrid's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Real Madrid games / 59 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 77% | Draw 16% | Rayo Vallecano 7%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.30 | Draw 6.25 | Rayo Vallecano 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 40% | Rayo Vallecano 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 77% | Draw 16% | Rayo Vallecano 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 43% | xG Real Madrid 2.44 / Rayo Vallecano 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.378 / def 0.758 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.729 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Rayo Vallecano xG
43%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 77% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (9 meetings): Real Madrid 4W | Draws 4 | Rayo Vallecano 1W.
What form are Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Real Madrid's attack at 1.38x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Real Madrid's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
77%
1.30
16%
6.17
7%
14.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
3 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
3.06
0.62
Rayo Vallecano xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.17
16%
Draw
14.68
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
9%
11.50
Win to Nil
42%
2.41
1%
168.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.62 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Real Madrid's recent record stands at 42W 9D 8L from 59 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 18W 20D 21L across 59 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayo Vallecano heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Real Madrid have managed 25W 1D 3L from 29 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 9W 6D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Madrid are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 0.98 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 42W 9D 8L in their last 59 games (2.29 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 18W 20D 21L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.62 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Real Madrid's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Real Madrid
4
Draws
1
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 5, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Madrid 48%, Rayo Vallecano 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Real Madrid) and 41% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano in 31%; Rayo Vallecano in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 34% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Real Madrid's recent games and 41% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Rayo Vallecano 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.44 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.62 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.38 / defence 0.76 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.73 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 77% | Draw 16% | Rayo Vallecano 7%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 58%, Rayo Vallecano 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.