Real Betis 4-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Betis at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Real Betis vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Betis and Osasuna meet at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Real Betis (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Real Betis's home record at Estadio Benito Villamarín: 6W 0D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Osasuna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Real Betis against 1.60 for Osasuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Real Betis, 0 for Osasuna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Real Betis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Real Betis — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Osasuna — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 52% versus Osasuna 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 55% | Osasuna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.38 xG and Osasuna 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.062 / defence 1.273 | Osasuna attack 0.777 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.085. Data: 29 Real Betis games / 29 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 43% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 29%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Osasuna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Betis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Real Betis 40% | Osasuna 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 43% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Real Betis 1.38 / Osasuna 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.062 / def 1.273 | Osasuna attack 0.777 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Osasuna xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Betis vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Real Betis 4 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Real Betis vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Osasuna part of?
Real Betis vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 43% chance of winning, Osasuna a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Real Betis and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Osasuna?
Record (1 meetings): Real Betis 1W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Real Betis and Osasuna in?
Real Betis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (1.06) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.78x) against Real Betis's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.53
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.45
1.07
Osasuna xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Real Betis and 1.07 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Betis come into this having played 29 games, going 15W 5D 9L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Real Betis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Real Betis's home form reads 8W 1D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.43 points per game from 14 outings (6W 2D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Betis are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 15W 5D 9L in their last 29 games (1.72 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Osasuna away?
Real Betis's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.79 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Osasuna in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won 4-1 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Betis have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Real Betis
2
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 7, Osasuna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Osasuna?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 43% (Real Betis) and 21% (Osasuna) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Real Betis) and 36% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 36%; Real Betis have failed to score in 29% of games; Osasuna in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Real Betis's recent matches and 21% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Real Betis's recent games and 36% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Osasuna tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Real Betis run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Osasuna 4-1 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.38 xG and Osasuna 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Real Betis beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.06 / defence 1.27 against Osasuna attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 43% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 29%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 55%, Osasuna 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.