Real Betis 1-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Betis vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Real Betis host Mallorca at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis's home record at Estadio Benito Villamarín: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Real Betis at 1.70 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Real Betis, 0 for Mallorca and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Real Betis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Real Betis trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Mallorca trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 49% versus Mallorca 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 52% | Mallorca 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.54 xG and Mallorca 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.022 / defence 1.105 | Mallorca attack 0.758 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 0.997. Data: 63 Real Betis games / 63 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 54% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 20%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Mallorca 5.00. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Real Betis 70% | Mallorca 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 54% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Real Betis 1.54 / Mallorca 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.022 / def 1.105 | Mallorca attack 0.758 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.355 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Mallorca xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Mallorca kick off?
Real Betis vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Mallorca?
Real Betis 1 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Real Betis vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Mallorca part of?
Real Betis vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 54% chance of winning, Mallorca a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Real Betis and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Mallorca?
Record (3 meetings): Real Betis 2W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Real Betis and Mallorca in?
Real Betis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Mallorca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (1.02) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Real Betis's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.90
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.38
0.83
Mallorca xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
23.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.83 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Real Betis have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 31W 14D 18L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 19W 14D 30L from 63 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Betis are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mallorca.
Venue Form
On home soil, Real Betis have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (16W 5D 10L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 6W 5D 20L from 31 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Betis are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.92 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 63 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 31W 14D 18L in their last 63 games (1.70 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 19W 14D 30L in their last 63 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Mallorca away?
Real Betis's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.71 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mallorca in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Real Betis go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Real Betis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Real Betis's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Real Betis
1
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 8, Mallorca have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Mallorca 1-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Mallorca?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 52%, Mallorca 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Real Betis) and 42% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Mallorca in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Real Betis's recent matches and 42% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Real Betis's recent games and 42% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Mallorca tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Mallorca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Mallorca 1-0 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.54 xG and Mallorca 0.83 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Mallorca attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 54% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 20%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 52%, Mallorca 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Real Betis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.