Real Betis 2-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Real Betis at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Real Betis face Granada CF.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Real Betis and Granada CF meet at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 19:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Real Betis have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Real Betis at home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Granada CF's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Granada CF away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Real Betis, 1.20 for Granada CF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Real Betis edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2021, ended Real Betis 2–1 Granada CF — a Real Betis win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 50% versus Granada CF 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 56% | Granada CF 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.74 xG and Granada CF 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.075 / defence 1.243 | Granada CF attack 1.200 / defence 1.483. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.132. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.483 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Real Betis's projected output up. Real Betis's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Granada CF's projected output up. Data: built from Real Betis's last 36 games and Granada CF's last 36.

Result probabilities: Real Betis 39% | Draw 24% | Granada CF 37%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 2.57 | Draw 4.12 | Granada CF 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Betis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Real Betis's last 10 home games and Granada CF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Real Betis 40% (last 10 home games) | Granada CF 60% (last 10 away games).

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