Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Rayo Vallecano welcome Osasuna to Estadio de Vallecas. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estadio de Vallecas — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Rayo Vallecano) versus 1.00 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Osasuna, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Rayo Vallecano.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Osasuna winning.
It is worth noting that Osasuna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Rayo Vallecano in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 48% versus Osasuna 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rayo Vallecano 41% | Osasuna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.924 / defence 1.092 | Osasuna attack 0.789 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.049. Data: 66 Rayo Vallecano games / 66 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 37% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Osasuna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rayo Vallecano 60% | Osasuna 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 37% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.00 / Osasuna 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.924 / def 1.092 | Osasuna attack 0.789 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Osasuna xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Rayo Vallecano 2 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 37% chance of winning, Osasuna a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 0W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 3W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 0.92x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
37%
2.71
32%
3.16
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
1.91
0.90
Osasuna xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.90 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayo Vallecano's recent record stands at 20W 19D 27L from 66 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 25L across 66 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.20 PPG, Osasuna on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayo Vallecano have managed 13W 10D 10L from 33 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 10W 11D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.92 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 66 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 20W 19D 27L in their last 66 games (1.20 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 22W 19D 25L in their last 66 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Osasuna away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.48 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Osasuna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Osasuna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Osasuna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rayo Vallecano
1
Draws
6
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, Osasuna have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 52%, Osasuna 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Rayo Vallecano) and 27% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 30% of games; Osasuna in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 39% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 27% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Osasuna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Osasuna 2-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.90 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Osasuna attack 0.79 / defence 0.81, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 37% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 31%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 41%, Osasuna 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.20 PPG, Osasuna 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.