Rayo Vallecano 3-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadio de Vallecas to face Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rayo Vallecano have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 La Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rayo Vallecano have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz (all games): 1W 3D 2L across 6 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Rayo Vallecano. A 0.67 PPG lead over Cadiz (1.67 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 33% versus Cadiz 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 67% | Cadiz 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.75 xG and Cadiz 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.502 / defence 0.922 | Cadiz attack 0.927 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.017 / away 1.114. Rayo Vallecano carry an above-average attack strength of 1.502 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Rayo Vallecano games / 6 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 53% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 17%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Cadiz 5.88. Rayo Vallecano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rayo Vallecano 33% | Cadiz 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 53% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.75 / Cadiz 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.502 / def 0.922 | Cadiz attack 0.927 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.017 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Cadiz xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Rayo Vallecano 3 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 53% chance of winning, Cadiz a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Cadiz (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (1.50) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.93x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
53%
1.89
30%
3.33
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.71
0.95
Cadiz xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
33.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.95 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 1D 2L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayo Vallecano carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cadiz in 67%.
Last 6 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
Cadiz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Have Rayo Vallecano or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cadiz in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rayo Vallecano won 5-1 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
2
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Cadiz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 33%, Cadiz 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Rayo Vallecano) and 33% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 33% of games; Cadiz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 67% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 33% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Cadiz 3-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.75 xG and Cadiz 0.95 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 1.50 / defence 0.92 against Cadiz attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 53% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 17%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 67%, Cadiz 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cadiz's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayo Vallecano arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Rayo Vallecano scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Cadiz shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.