Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Almeria travel to Estadio de Vallecas to take on Rayo Vallecano. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 February 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayo Vallecano stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano's home record at Estadio de Vallecas: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's away record: 0W 3D 6L from 9 road trips in La Liga this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rayo Vallecano 1.80 PPG, Almeria 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 0, Almeria 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Almeria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rayo Vallecano in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Almeria in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 53% versus Almeria 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 47% | Almeria 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.67 xG and Almeria 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.008 / defence 1.198 | Almeria attack 0.886 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 0.975. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Rayo Vallecano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Rayo Vallecano games / 19 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 52% | Draw 24% | Almeria 23%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Almeria 4.35. Rayo Vallecano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 60% | Almeria 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Monday 6 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 52% | Draw 24% | Almeria 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.67 / Almeria 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.008 / def 1.198 | Almeria attack 0.886 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.283 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Almeria xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 6 February 2023 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
Rayo Vallecano 2 - 0 Almeria.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 52% chance of winning, Almeria a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Almeria?
Record (1 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 0W | Draws 0 | Almeria 1W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Almeria in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Almeria (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (1.01) and Almeria's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.11
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.70
1.03
Almeria xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
4%
22.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.03 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 8W 5D 6L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almeria's form line: 6W 4D 9L from 19 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.53 PPG, Almeria on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rayo Vallecano have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Almeria have gone 0W 3D 6L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.21 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 63%.
Defensively: Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Almeria in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 games (1.53 PPG), while Almeria have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Almeria away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.56 PPG; Almeria away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Almeria in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
0
Draws
2
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Almeria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 56%, Almeria 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Rayo Vallecano) and 44% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 44% of games; Almeria in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 56% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 44% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Almeria tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Almeria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Almeria 2-0 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.67 xG and Almeria 1.03 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Almeria landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against Almeria attack 0.89 / defence 1.29, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 52% | Draw 24% | Almeria 23%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 47%, Almeria 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Almeria's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.53 PPG, Almeria 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.