Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Villarreal (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Villarreal.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Villarreal in La Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Villarreal have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Villarreal are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Osasuna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Villarreal in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Villarreal hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Villarreal winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Villarreal have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 55% versus Villarreal 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 43% | Villarreal 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.50 xG and Villarreal 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.134 / defence 1.103 | Villarreal attack 1.214 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.119. Villarreal have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Osasuna games / 58 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 37% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 37%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Villarreal 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 60% | Villarreal 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 37% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Osasuna 1.50 / Villarreal 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.134 / def 1.103 | Villarreal attack 1.214 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Villarreal xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Villarreal kick off?
Osasuna vs Villarreal kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Osasuna 2 - 2 Villarreal.
Where is Osasuna vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Villarreal part of?
Osasuna vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 37% chance of winning, Villarreal a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Osasuna and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Villarreal?
Record (9 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 2 | Villarreal 5W.
What form are Osasuna and Villarreal in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Villarreal (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.13x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.21x) against Osasuna's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.88
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Osasuna xG
Total xG
3.00
1.50
Villarreal xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.50 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osasuna's recent record stands at 19W 19D 20L from 58 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 33W 12D 13L across 58 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Osasuna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 16W 7D 5L from 28 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Villarreal's away record stands at 16W 4D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.86 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 60%.
Last 58 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 19W 19D 20L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 33W 12D 13L in their last 58 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Villarreal away?
Osasuna's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.96 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 0-3 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 68%, Villarreal 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Osasuna) and 54% (Villarreal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Osasuna's games and 61% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Osasuna's matches and 54% of Villarreal's.
Do Osasuna and Villarreal tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Villarreal share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 22, as Osasuna and Villarreal drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.50 xG and Villarreal 1.50 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.13 / defence 1.10 against Villarreal attack 1.21 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 37% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 37%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 43%, Villarreal 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.