Osasuna 1-0 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osasuna face Rayo Vallecano.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Friday 15 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Rayo Vallecano — last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.00 (Rayo Vallecano). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Osasuna, 1 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2023, ended Osasuna 1–2 Rayo Vallecano — a Rayo Vallecano win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rayo Vallecano trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 46% versus Rayo Vallecano 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 39% | Rayo Vallecano 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.12 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.867 / defence 1.099 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.807 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.130. Data: built from Osasuna's last 54 games and Rayo Vallecano's last 54.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 35% | Rayo Vallecano 30%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.81 | Draw 2.86 | Rayo Vallecano 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Rayo Vallecano's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 50% (last 10 home games) | Rayo Vallecano 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Friday 15 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 35% | Rayo Vallecano 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Osasuna 1.12 / Rayo Vallecano 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.867 / def 1.099 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.807 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rayo Vallecano xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 15 December 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano is a La Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 36% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.87) and Rayo Vallecano's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 54 games and Rayo Vallecano's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
36%
2.81
35%
2.86
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.12
1.00
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.00 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 12D 23L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Rayo Vallecano's form line: 17W 18D 19L from 54 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.28 PPG, Rayo Vallecano on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 27 home games (12W 4D 11L).
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 7W 8D 12L from their last 27 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.13 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 17W 18D 19L in their last 54 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Osasuna's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.48 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Feb 2022, when Osasuna won Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Osasuna.
Osasuna's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Osasuna
2
Draws
3
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 5, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 44%, Rayo Vallecano 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Osasuna) and 44% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano in 37%; Osasuna have failed to score in 33% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Osasuna's recent matches and 41% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Osasuna's recent games and 44% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Rayo Vallecano 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.12 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.00 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 36% | Draw 35% | Rayo Vallecano 30%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 39%, Rayo Vallecano 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.28 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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