Osasuna 0-0 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 57%, yet in-form Levante provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osasuna vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levante make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Monday 24 August 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Osasuna (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Levante have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Levante are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osasuna lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Levante winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Levante — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 55% versus Levante 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 50% | Levante 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.86 xG and Levante 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.995 / defence 1.049 | Levante attack 0.857 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.133. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Osasuna games / 39 Levante games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 57% | Draw 23% | Levante 20%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Levante 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levante (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 90% | Levante 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 57% | Draw 23% | Levante 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Osasuna 1.86 / Levante 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.995 / def 1.049 | Levante attack 0.857 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Levante xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Levante kick off?
Osasuna vs Levante kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 24 August 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Levante?
Osasuna 0 - 0 Levante.
Where is Osasuna vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Levante part of?
Osasuna vs Levante is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 57% chance of winning, Levante a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osasuna and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Levante?
Record (4 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 1 | Levante 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Levante in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Levante (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.99) and Levante's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.86x) against Osasuna's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (38/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.43
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.88
1.02
Levante xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
31.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.02 for Levante, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 11W 9D 18L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. Osasuna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Levante's form line: 11W 9D 18L from 38 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Osasuna against 1.11 for Levante. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Levante have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.21 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 38 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Pre-Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Levante in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Levante have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Levante away?
Osasuna's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.68 PPG; Levante away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Osasuna
2
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Levante?
From 5 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Levante have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Osasuna 0-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Levante?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 74%, Levante 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Osasuna) and 47% (Levante). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Osasuna's games and 42% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Osasuna's matches and 47% of Levante's.
Do Osasuna and Levante tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Levante in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Osasuna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 2, as Osasuna and Levante drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.86 xG and Levante 1.02 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Levante landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Levante attack 0.86 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 57% | Draw 23% | Levante 20%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 50%, Levante 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levante's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.11 PPG, Levante 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.