Osasuna 1-1 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Osasuna take on Granada CF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Granada CF meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Osasuna have collected 1.89 PPG across 9 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 1W 2D 2L from 5 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.89 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio El Sadar this season.
Granada CF's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 3D 4L from 8 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Granada CF have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Osasuna's 1.89 PPG return is 1.14 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 0.75 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Granada CF — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 62% versus Granada CF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 62% | Granada CF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.88 xG and Granada CF 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.747 / defence 1.399 | Granada CF attack 0.641 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.904. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Osasuna games / 8 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 34% | Draw 35% | Granada CF 30%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Granada CF 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Granada CF's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 40% | Granada CF 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 34% | Draw 35% | Granada CF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Osasuna 0.88 / Granada CF 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.747 / def 1.399 | Granada CF attack 0.641 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.904 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Granada CF xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Granada CF kick off?
Osasuna vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Granada CF?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Granada CF.
Where is Osasuna vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Granada CF part of?
Osasuna vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 34% chance of winning, Granada CF a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Osasuna and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Granada CF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Granada CF in?
Osasuna (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.75x the league average against Granada CF's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (0.64x) against Osasuna's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.92
35%
2.82
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.69
0.81
Granada CF xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 14.9 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.81 for Granada CF, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Granada CF, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 4L across 8 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Granada CF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Granada CF's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osasuna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Granada CF away?
Osasuna's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.00 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Granada CF in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Granada CF won 3-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Granada CF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Osasuna
1
Draws
1
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Granada CF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Granada CF 3-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Granada CF?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Granada CF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 50%, Granada CF 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Osasuna) and 25% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Granada CF in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Osasuna's recent matches and 25% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Osasuna's recent games and 25% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Osasuna and Granada CF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna and Granada CF finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.88 xG and Granada CF 0.81 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.75 / defence 1.40 against Granada CF attack 0.64 / defence 1.18, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 34% | Draw 35% | Granada CF 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 62%, Granada CF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Granada CF's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.