Osasuna 2-0 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osasuna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Athletic Club meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 25 May 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Athletic Club (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Athletic Club's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Osasuna 0W, Athletic Club 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Athletic Club half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 41% versus Athletic Club 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 36% | Athletic Club 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.38 xG and Athletic Club 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.896 / defence 1.179 | Athletic Club attack 1.099 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.043. Data: 73 Osasuna games / 73 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Athletic Club 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 40% | Athletic Club 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Thursday 25 May 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Osasuna 1.38 / Athletic Club 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.896 / def 1.179 | Athletic Club attack 1.099 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Athletic Club xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Athletic Club kick off?
Osasuna vs Athletic Club kicked off at 20:30 on Thursday 25 May 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Osasuna 2 - 0 Athletic Club.
Where is Osasuna vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Athletic Club part of?
Osasuna vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 38% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Osasuna and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
Record (3 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 1 | Athletic Club 2W.
What form are Osasuna and Athletic Club in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Athletic Club's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (1.10x) against Osasuna's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.90
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.73
1.35
Athletic Club xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.35 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 25W 19D 29L from 73 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 28W 21D 24L across 73 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Osasuna against 1.44 for Athletic Club. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 14W 8D 14L from 36 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 10W 14D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.22 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Athletic Club
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 25W 19D 29L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 28W 21D 24L in their last 73 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Athletic Club away?
Osasuna's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.39 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
4
Draws
5
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Athletic Club have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 44%, Athletic Club 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Osasuna) and 42% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 33% of games; Athletic Club in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Osasuna's recent matches and 50% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Osasuna's recent games and 42% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Athletic Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Athletic Club 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.38 xG and Athletic Club 1.35 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Athletic Club landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against Athletic Club attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 38% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 36%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 36%, Athletic Club 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Athletic Club's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.29 PPG, Athletic Club 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.