Osasuna 1-3 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Osasuna take on Athletic Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Athletic Club meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Monday 3 January 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 1W 5D 3L from 9 La Liga appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Athletic Club (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's away record: 1W 7D 1L from 9 road trips in La Liga this season (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Athletic Club half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 44% versus Athletic Club 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 33% | Athletic Club 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.70 xG and Athletic Club 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.792 / defence 1.328 | Athletic Club attack 0.572 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.114. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Osasuna games / 19 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 27% | Draw 39% | Athletic Club 35%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.70 | Draw 2.56 | Athletic Club 2.86. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.55. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.55 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 56% | Athletic Club 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 27% | Draw 39% | Athletic Club 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 30% | xG Osasuna 0.70 / Athletic Club 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.792 / def 1.328 | Athletic Club attack 0.572 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Athletic Club xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Athletic Club kick off?
Osasuna vs Athletic Club kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 3 January 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Osasuna 1 - 3 Athletic Club.
Where is Osasuna vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Athletic Club part of?
Osasuna vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 27% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 35% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Osasuna and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Athletic Club in?
Osasuna (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Athletic Club's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (0.57x) against Osasuna's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.76
39%
2.60
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.55
0.85
Athletic Club xG
3.76
27%
Home win
2.60
39%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.31
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
49%
2.02
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.2 | 18.0 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.9%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.85 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 1.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 5W 7D 6L from 18 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 5W 8D 5L across 18 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Osasuna against 1.28 for Athletic Club. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 1W 4D 3L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 1W 6D 1L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 0.94 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 5W 8D 5L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 0.88 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
4
Draws
5
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Athletic Club have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 62%, Athletic Club 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Osasuna and 0% for Athletic Club.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 50%; Athletic Club in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Osasuna's recent matches and 38% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Osasuna's recent games and 0% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Osasuna 1-3 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.70 xG and Athletic Club 0.85 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Athletic Club outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.79 / defence 1.33 against Athletic Club attack 0.57 / defence 0.82, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 27% | Draw 39% | Athletic Club 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Athletic Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 33%, Athletic Club 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Athletic Club's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.22 PPG, Athletic Club 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Athletic Club win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.