Mallorca 0-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Mallorca take on Villarreal.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Villarreal travel to Iberostar Estadi to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: D W W L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Villarreal — All Games: 0W 3D 0L from 3 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.75 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.75 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Mallorca 0% | Villarreal 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 0% | Villarreal 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.04 xG and Villarreal 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.956 / defence 1.027 | Villarreal attack 0.858 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 0.932 / away 1.090. Data: 4 Mallorca games / 3 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 33% | Draw 39% | Villarreal 28%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.03 | Draw 2.56 | Villarreal 3.57. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 25% | Villarreal 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Iberostar Estadi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 33% | Draw 39% | Villarreal 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 44% | xG Mallorca 1.04 / Villarreal 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.956 / def 1.027 | Villarreal attack 0.858 / def 1.169 | league avg home 0.932 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Villarreal xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Villarreal kick off?
Mallorca vs Villarreal kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Iberostar Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Mallorca 0 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Mallorca vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Iberostar Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Villarreal part of?
Mallorca vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 33% chance of winning, Villarreal a 28% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Mallorca and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Villarreal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Villarreal in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-W-W-L. Villarreal (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.96) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
39%
2.57
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.00
0.96
Villarreal xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.96 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Mallorca have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Villarreal's form line: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Mallorca are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Villarreal.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Mallorca have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Villarreal in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Villarreal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Mallorca or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Villarreal in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Villarreal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Villarreal tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Mallorca 0% BTTS, Villarreal 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Mallorca and 33% for Villarreal.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Villarreal in 67%; Mallorca have failed to score in 33% of games; Villarreal in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Mallorca's recent matches and 33% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Mallorca's recent games and 33% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Villarreal tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mallorca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Villarreal finished level at 0-0 at Iberostar Estadi, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.04 xG and Villarreal 0.96 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mallorca fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Villarreal landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Villarreal attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 4/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 33% | Draw 39% | Villarreal 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 0%, Villarreal 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Villarreal's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.