Mallorca 1-0 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mallorca at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Las Palmas encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mallorca and Las Palmas meet at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Mallorca (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mallorca at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Las Palmas's record over their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Las Palmas away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Mallorca. A 0.70 PPG lead over Las Palmas (0.90 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Mallorca, 0 for Las Palmas and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Mallorca 1–1 Las Palmas — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Las Palmas half-time and goal-timing data (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 44% versus Las Palmas 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 26% | Las Palmas 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.30 xG and Las Palmas 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.701 / defence 0.864 | Las Palmas attack 0.764 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.097. Mallorca's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Las Palmas's defence rating of 1.296 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mallorca's projected output up. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Mallorca's last 72 games and Las Palmas's last 34.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 50% | Draw 29% | Las Palmas 21%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.99 | Draw 3.46 | Las Palmas 4.80. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 40% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 35 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 50% | Draw 29% | Las Palmas 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Mallorca 1.30 / Las Palmas 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.701 / def 0.864 | Las Palmas attack 0.764 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Las Palmas xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Las Palmas kick off?
Mallorca vs Las Palmas kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Las Palmas.
Where is Mallorca vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Las Palmas part of?
Mallorca vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 35) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 50% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Mallorca and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Mallorca vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.76x) against Mallorca's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 72 games and Las Palmas's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.46
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.02
0.72
Las Palmas xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
6%
17.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.72 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mallorca's recent record stands at 6W 14D 14L from 34 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Las Palmas, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 17L across 34 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Mallorca against 1.09 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 5W 7D 5L from their last 17 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Las Palmas's away record stands at 4W 3D 10L across their last 17 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.88 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Las Palmas
Current Season
Mallorca (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Current Season
Las Palmas
Current Season
❓ Mallorca vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 6W 14D 14L in their last 34 games (0.94 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 10W 7D 17L in their last 34 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Las Palmas away?
Mallorca's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.29 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Mallorca and Las Palmas, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mallorca have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Las Palmas?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 3, Las Palmas have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2025: Mallorca 3-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Las Palmas?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 41%, Las Palmas 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Mallorca and 29% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 41% of games; Las Palmas in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Mallorca's recent matches and 35% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mallorca and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Mallorca's recent games and 29% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Mallorca's recent matches and 65% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Las Palmas 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Las Palmas 1-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.30 xG and Las Palmas 0.72 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.70 / defence 0.86 against Las Palmas attack 0.76 / defence 1.30, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 50% | Draw 29% | Las Palmas 21%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 26%, Las Palmas 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Las Palmas's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 0.94 PPG, Las Palmas 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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