Levante 2-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 40%, yet in-form Mallorca provide a compelling counter-argument — this Levante vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levante host Mallorca at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Levante — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levante have posted 0W 6D 3L at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 2W 2D 5L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mallorca — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Levante, 1 for Mallorca and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Levante in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 32% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Mallorca in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 53% versus Mallorca 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 53% | Mallorca 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.53 xG and Mallorca 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.862 / defence 1.434 | Mallorca attack 0.862 / defence 1.650. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 1.133. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.650 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Levante games / 19 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 40% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 34%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Mallorca 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mallorca (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Levante 44% | Mallorca 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 40% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Levante 1.53 / Mallorca 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.862 / def 1.434 | Mallorca attack 0.862 / def 1.650 | league avg home 1.078 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Levante (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Mallorca xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Mallorca kick off?
Levante vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Mallorca?
Levante 2 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Levante vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Mallorca part of?
Levante vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 40% chance of winning, Mallorca a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Levante and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Mallorca?
Record (1 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 0 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Levante and Mallorca in?
Levante (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Mallorca (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levante's attack rating (0.86) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
40%
2.53
27%
3.73
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Levante xG
Total xG
2.93
1.40
Mallorca xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Levante and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Levante and 1.40 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Levante have picked up 0.42 PPG on a 0W 8D 11L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 4W 8D 7L from 19 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mallorca are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (0W 6D 3L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.89 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 19 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 0W 8D 11L in their last 19 games (0.42 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Mallorca away?
Mallorca's away record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.67 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Levante or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Mallorca in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Levante's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Levante
1
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Mallorca?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 2, Mallorca have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Levante 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Mallorca?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 44%, Mallorca 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Levante) and 56% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Levante have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Levante's games and 67% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Levante's recent games and 56% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Levante cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Mallorca 2-0 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.53 xG and Mallorca 1.40 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mallorca landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.86 / defence 1.43 against Mallorca attack 0.86 / defence 1.65, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 40% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 34%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 53%, Mallorca 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Mallorca's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.42. Form was overturned, with Levante winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Levante (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.