Levante 1-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Ciudad de Valencia plays host to Levante versus Girona in La Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levante have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Girona's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Girona have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Levante, 1.50 for Girona — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Levante 1W, Girona 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 4–0 with Levante winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Levante half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 46% versus Girona 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 46% | Girona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.02 xG and Girona 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.677 / defence 1.175 | Girona attack 0.994 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.142. Levante's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Levante games / 64 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 28% | Draw 28% | Girona 44%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Girona 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levante 40% | Girona 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 28% | Draw 28% | Girona 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Levante 1.02 / Girona 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.677 / def 1.175 | Girona attack 0.994 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Girona (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Girona xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Girona kick off?
Levante vs Girona kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Girona?
Levante 1 - 1 Girona.
Where is Levante vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Girona part of?
Levante vs Girona is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 28% chance of winning, Girona a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Levante and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Girona?
Record (1 meetings): Levante 1W | Draws 0 | Girona 0W.
What form are Levante and Girona in?
Levante (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Levante's attack at 0.68x the league average against Girona's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Girona's attack (0.99x) against Levante's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
28%
3.53
28%
3.58
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Levante xG
Total xG
2.35
1.33
Girona xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Levante and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Levante and 1.33 for Girona, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Levante come into this having played 26 games, going 5W 6D 15L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Girona sit at 1.15 PPG from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Levante against 1.15 for Girona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Levante's home form reads 2W 4D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Girona have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levante are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.04 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 62%.
Last 26 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Girona in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 games (0.81 PPG), while Girona have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.77 PPG; Girona away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Levante
1
Draws
0
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Girona?
From 2 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Girona have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Levante 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Girona?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 54%, Girona 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Levante) and 54% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Levante's games and 69% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Levante's recent games and 54% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Girona tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Girona in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 27, as Levante and Girona drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.02 xG and Girona 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.68 / defence 1.18 against Girona attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 28% | Draw 28% | Girona 44%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 46%, Girona 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.81 PPG, Girona 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.