Levante 0-2 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levante at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Celta Vigo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Levante welcome Celta Vigo to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Levante — All Games: 0W 4D 1L from 5 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 0W 1D 4L from 5 La Liga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.80 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Levante register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Celta Vigo in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Levante in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games.
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Levante 80% and Celta Vigo 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levante 20% | Celta Vigo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.59 xG and Celta Vigo 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.160 / defence 1.323 | Celta Vigo attack 0.826 / defence 1.533. League average goals — home 0.893 / away 1.108. Celta Vigo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.533 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Levante games / 5 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 43% | Draw 32% | Celta Vigo 26%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Celta Vigo 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levante 80% | Celta Vigo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 43% | Draw 32% | Celta Vigo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Levante 1.59 / Celta Vigo 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.160 / def 1.323 | Celta Vigo attack 0.826 / def 1.533 | league avg home 0.893 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Levante (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Celta Vigo xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Levante vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 21:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Celta Vigo?
Levante 0 - 2 Celta Vigo.
Where is Levante vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Celta Vigo part of?
Levante vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 43% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Levante and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Celta Vigo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Celta Vigo in?
Levante (all comps): 0W-4D-1L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Celta Vigo (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levante's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.14
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Levante xG
Total xG
2.80
1.21
Celta Vigo xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
5%
19.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Levante and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Levante and 1.21 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levante come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 4D 1L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Celta Vigo sit at 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levante carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levante have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Celta Vigo in 60%.
Last 5 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Early Season
Celta Vigo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 0W 4D 1L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Levante's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Levante
1
Draws
2
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Celta Vigo?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Celta Vigo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-3 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Levante at 80%, Celta Vigo at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Levante) and 60% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Levante's games and 60% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Levante's recent games and 60% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Levante 0-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.59 xG and Celta Vigo 1.21 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Levante fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 1.16 / defence 1.32 against Celta Vigo attack 0.83 / defence 1.53, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 43% | Draw 32% | Celta Vigo 26%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 20%, Celta Vigo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Levante arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.20. Form was overturned, with Celta Vigo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Levante managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Celta Vigo scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.