Levante 0-2 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Cadiz travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's home record at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia: 1W 6D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cadiz — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Levante) versus 0.70 (Cadiz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Levante, 0 for Cadiz and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Levante in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Cadiz in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Cadiz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 50% | Cadiz 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.36 xG and Cadiz 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.869 / defence 1.319 | Cadiz attack 0.691 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.103. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Levante games / 21 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 43% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 26%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Cadiz 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levante are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levante 40% | Cadiz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 43% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Levante 1.36 / Cadiz 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.869 / def 1.319 | Cadiz attack 0.691 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Levante (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Cadiz xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Cadiz kick off?
Levante vs Cadiz kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Cadiz?
Levante 0 - 2 Cadiz.
Where is Levante vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Cadiz part of?
Levante vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 43% chance of winning, Cadiz a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Levante and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Cadiz?
Record (1 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Levante and Cadiz in?
Levante (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Levante's attack at 0.87x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.30
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Levante xG
Total xG
2.36
1.00
Cadiz xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Levante and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Levante and 1.00 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Levante have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 1W 8D 11L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz's form line: 2W 8D 10L from 20 games, 0.70 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 0.55 PPG, Cadiz on 0.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (1W 6D 3L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.80 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 20 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 1W 8D 11L in their last 20 games (0.55 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 2W 8D 10L in their last 20 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Cadiz away?
Levante's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.90 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levante and Cadiz runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Levante
1
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Cadiz?
From 2 meetings on record, Levante have won 0, Cadiz have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Levante 0-2 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Cadiz?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 40%, Cadiz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Levante) and 50% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Levante have failed to score in 50% of games; Cadiz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Levante's recent matches and 50% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Levante's recent games and 50% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Cadiz tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Levante 0-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.36 xG and Cadiz 1.00 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Levante fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cadiz outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.87 / defence 1.32 against Cadiz attack 0.69 / defence 1.39, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 43% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 26%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Cadiz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 50%, Cadiz 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cadiz's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.55 PPG, Cadiz 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.