Las Palmas 3-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Las Palmas vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Villarreal travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria to take on Las Palmas. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Las Palmas have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas at Estadio de Gran Canaria this season: 4W 3D 2L from 9 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Villarreal — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Las Palmas 1.40 PPG, Villarreal 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Las Palmas have won 1, Villarreal 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Las Palmas winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Las Palmas 42% and Villarreal 84% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 26% | Villarreal 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.54 xG and Villarreal 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.839 / defence 0.979 | Villarreal attack 1.021 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.141. Villarreal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Las Palmas's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Las Palmas games / 57 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 45% | Draw 29% | Villarreal 26%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Villarreal 3.85. Las Palmas hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Las Palmas are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 56% | Villarreal 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 45% | Draw 29% | Villarreal 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Las Palmas 1.54 / Villarreal 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.839 / def 0.979 | Villarreal attack 1.021 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Villarreal xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Villarreal kick off?
Las Palmas vs Villarreal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Las Palmas 3 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Las Palmas vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Villarreal part of?
Las Palmas vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 45% chance of winning, Villarreal a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Las Palmas and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Villarreal?
Record (1 meetings): Las Palmas 1W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 0W.
What form are Las Palmas and Villarreal in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Villarreal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.84x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.46
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.68
1.14
Villarreal xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.14 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 7W 4D 8L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal's form line: 5W 4D 10L from 19 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Las Palmas on 1.32 PPG, Villarreal on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Las Palmas are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.42 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 84%.
Last 19 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Villarreal away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.67 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Villarreal have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jan 2024, when Las Palmas won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Las Palmas's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Las Palmas
0
Draws
2
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Villarreal?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 2, Villarreal have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Las Palmas 1-2 Villarreal.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Las Palmas at 56%, Villarreal at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Las Palmas) and 56% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Las Palmas's games and 78% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Las Palmas vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Las Palmas's recent games and 56% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Villarreal tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Las Palmas run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Villarreal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Villarreal 3-0 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.54 xG and Villarreal 1.14 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Las Palmas beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Villarreal landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Villarreal attack 1.02 / defence 1.31, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 45% | Draw 29% | Villarreal 26%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 26%, Villarreal 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Villarreal's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 84% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.32 PPG, Villarreal 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.