Granada CF 2-3 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Real Sociedad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Granada CF welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Kick-off is set for Thursday 23 September 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Sociedad stand at 3W 1D 1L from 5 La Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 5 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Real Sociedad have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Sociedad — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Granada CF in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 60% versus Real Sociedad 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Granada CF 40% | Real Sociedad 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.15 xG and Real Sociedad 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.893 / defence 1.197 | Real Sociedad attack 1.004 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.121. Real Sociedad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Granada CF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Granada CF games / 5 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 28% | Draw 34% | Real Sociedad 37%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Real Sociedad 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Granada CF 60% | Real Sociedad 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 28% | Draw 34% | Real Sociedad 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Granada CF 1.15 / Real Sociedad 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.893 / def 1.197 | Real Sociedad attack 1.004 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.014 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Real Sociedad xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Granada CF vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Real Sociedad?
Granada CF 2 - 3 Real Sociedad.
Where is Granada CF vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Real Sociedad part of?
Granada CF vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 28% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Granada CF and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Real Sociedad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Granada CF and Real Sociedad in?
Granada CF (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Real Sociedad (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Granada CF's attack at 0.89x the league average against Real Sociedad's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
28%
3.55
34%
2.91
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.50
1.35
Real Sociedad xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
13.67
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.35 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Granada CF come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 3D 2L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Granada CF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Real Sociedad, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Granada CF are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Real Sociedad in 20%.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 80% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Early Season
Real Sociedad
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Granada CF or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 80%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Granada CF and Real Sociedad runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Real Sociedad have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Granada CF's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
0
Draws
4
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Real Sociedad?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Real Sociedad have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Granada CF 2-3 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 60%, Real Sociedad 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Granada CF and 20% for Real Sociedad.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 80%; Granada CF have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Granada CF's recent matches and 20% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Granada CF vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Granada CF's recent games and 20% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Granada CF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Granada CF 2-3 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.15 xG and Real Sociedad 1.35 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Granada CF beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Sociedad outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against Real Sociedad attack 1.00 / defence 1.27, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 28% | Draw 34% | Real Sociedad 37%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 40%, Real Sociedad 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Granada CF scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.