Granada CF 0-4 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Real Madrid (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Granada CF face Real Madrid.

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Full Analysis

Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes plays host to Granada CF versus Real Madrid in La Liga (matchday 35). Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

Granada CF (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Granada CF's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Real Madrid's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Real Madrid have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 1.80 PPG clear of Granada CF over their recent games (2.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Real Madrid, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Granada CF 0–2 Real Madrid — a Real Madrid win.

Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Data

Granada CF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Real Madrid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 50% versus Real Madrid 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 41% | Real Madrid 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Granada CF surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Real Madrid have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.05 xG and Real Madrid 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.941 / defence 1.104 | Real Madrid attack 1.320 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.097. Real Madrid bring a tight defence (rating 0.779, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Granada CF's projected output down. Real Madrid have an above-average attack rating of 1.320, which lifts their away xG to 1.60. Data: built from Granada CF's last 34 games and Real Madrid's last 72.

Result probabilities: Granada CF 25% | Draw 25% | Real Madrid 50%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 4.01 | Draw 4.01 | Real Madrid 2.00. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Granada CF 40% (last 10 home games) | Real Madrid 50% (last 10 away games).

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