Granada CF 2-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Granada CF host Alaves at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada CF have gone 1W 2D 3L this season (6 games, 0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alaves — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alaves have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Granada CF) versus 1.40 (Alaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Granada CF in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Alaves in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 57% versus Alaves 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Granada CF 43% | Alaves 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.11 xG and Alaves 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.945 / defence 1.471 | Alaves attack 0.817 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.157. Data: 14 Granada CF games / 14 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 29% | Draw 29% | Alaves 42%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Alaves 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 83% | Alaves 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 29% | Draw 29% | Alaves 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Granada CF 1.11 / Alaves 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.945 / def 1.471 | Alaves attack 0.817 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Alaves (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Alaves xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Alaves kick off?
Granada CF vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Alaves?
Granada CF 2 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Granada CF vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Alaves part of?
Granada CF vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 29% chance of winning, Alaves a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Granada CF and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Alaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Granada CF and Alaves in?
Granada CF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Alaves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Granada CF's attack at 0.94x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
29%
3.48
29%
3.42
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.50
1.39
Alaves xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
7%
13.99
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.39 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Granada CF's recent record stands at 2W 6D 6L from 14 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 8L across 14 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Granada CF on 0.86 PPG, Alaves on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Granada CF have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alaves's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Granada CF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.79 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 14 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Alaves in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while Alaves have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Alaves away?
Granada CF's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.83 PPG; Alaves away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Granada CF's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Granada CF
0
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Alaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 3, Alaves have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Granada CF 2-0 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Alaves?
Granada CF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 83%, Alaves 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Granada CF) and 33% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Alaves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Granada CF's games and 33% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Granada CF's recent games and 33% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Alaves tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alaves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Granada CF defy the odds to beat Alaves 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF beat Alaves 2-1 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.11 xG and Alaves 1.39 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Granada CF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.94 / defence 1.47 against Alaves attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 29% | Draw 29% | Alaves 42%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Granada CF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 43%, Alaves 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 0.86 PPG, Alaves 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Granada CF win broke the near-deadlock. Granada CF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.