Granada CF 2-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Alaves at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Alaves encounter.

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Match Analysis

Granada CF host Alaves at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

At home at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada CF have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Alaves — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Alaves have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Alaves's 1.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Granada CF, 1 for Alaves and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Alaves winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Granada CF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Alaves in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 53% versus Alaves 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Granada CF 40% | Alaves 27%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.02 xG and Alaves 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.785 / defence 1.326 | Alaves attack 0.755 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.079. Granada CF's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Granada CF games / 30 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Granada CF 33% | Draw 30% | Alaves 36%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Alaves 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Granada CF 60% | Alaves 40%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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