Girona 1-2 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Girona (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Girona face Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sevilla travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona in La Liga (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 January 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Girona at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sevilla — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sevilla away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Girona are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Girona: 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Sevilla, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Girona 2–0 Sevilla — a Girona win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Girona and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sevilla in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 51% versus Sevilla 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Sevilla 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.37 xG and Sevilla 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.268 / defence 1.121 | Sevilla attack 1.126 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.167. Girona carry an above-average attack rating of 1.268 — their 2.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sevilla's defence rating of 1.336 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Girona's projected output up. Data: built from Girona's last 57 games and Sevilla's last 57.
Result probabilities: Girona 58% | Draw 19% | Sevilla 23%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.74 | Draw 5.18 | Sevilla 4.32. The model has a clear lean to Girona (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.37 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.84 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Girona's last 10 home games and Sevilla's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Girona 40% (last 10 home games) | Sevilla 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 58% | Draw 19% | Sevilla 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Girona 2.37 / Sevilla 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.268 / def 1.121 | Sevilla attack 1.126 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Girona (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sevilla xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Sevilla FAQs
What time does Girona vs Sevilla kick off?
Girona vs Sevilla kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Sevilla?
Girona 1 - 2 Sevilla.
Where is Girona vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Sevilla part of?
Girona vs Sevilla is a La Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 58% chance of winning, Sevilla a 23% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Girona and Sevilla will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Girona vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Girona's attack at 1.27x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 57 games and Sevilla's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
58%
1.74
19%
5.18
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Girona xG
Total xG
3.84
1.47
Sevilla xG
1.74
58%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
9%
10.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
2%
46.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Sevilla Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Girona and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Girona and 1.47 for Sevilla, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Sevilla?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona's recent record stands at 33W 10D 14L from 57 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Sevilla, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 25L across 57 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sevilla heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Girona have managed 20W 3D 5L from their last 28 home games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sevilla's away record stands at 5W 9D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.21 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
Girona (Home) vs Sevilla (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Girona vs Sevilla Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 33W 10D 14L in their last 57 games (1.91 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 16W 16D 25L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Sevilla away?
Girona's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.25 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Girona or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sevilla in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2024, when Girona won Girona 5-1 Sevilla.
Girona's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Girona
1
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Sevilla H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Sevilla?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 5, Sevilla have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Girona and Sevilla last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Sevilla 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Sevilla?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 46%, Sevilla 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Girona) and 46% (Sevilla). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sevilla in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Sevilla Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Sevilla matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Girona's recent matches and 54% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Girona and Sevilla matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Girona's matches and 46% of Sevilla's.
Do Girona and Sevilla matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Girona's recent matches and 75% of Sevilla's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Girona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Girona 1-2 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.37 xG and Sevilla 1.47 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Girona fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.27 / defence 1.12 against Sevilla attack 1.13 / defence 1.34, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 58% | Draw 19% | Sevilla 23%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Sevilla win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Sevilla 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sevilla's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Sevilla winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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