Getafe 1-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Getafe and Mallorca meet at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Getafe's home record at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez: 6W 3D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Getafe are significantly better at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Getafe's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Getafe lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Getafe half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 38% versus Mallorca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 34% | Mallorca 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.83 xG and Mallorca 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 1.000 / defence 1.020 | Mallorca attack 0.798 / defence 1.644. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.098. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.644 — this is suppressing Getafe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Getafe games / 29 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 59% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 17%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Mallorca 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Getafe (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Getafe at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Getafe 30% | Mallorca 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 59% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Getafe 1.83 / Mallorca 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 1.000 / def 1.020 | Mallorca attack 0.798 / def 1.644 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Getafe (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Mallorca xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Mallorca kick off?
Getafe vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Mallorca?
Getafe 1 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Getafe vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What competition is Getafe vs Mallorca part of?
Getafe vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 59% chance of winning, Mallorca a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Getafe and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Mallorca?
Record (1 meetings): Getafe 0W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Getafe and Mallorca in?
Getafe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Getafe's attack rating (1.00) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.64), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.80x) against Getafe's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.18
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.73
0.89
Mallorca xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
3%
36.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Getafe and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Getafe and 0.89 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Getafe come into this having played 29 games, going 6W 11D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 0.90 PPG from 29 outings (6W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Getafe against 0.90 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Getafe's home form reads 6W 4D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Getafe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.57 points per game from 14 outings (2W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Getafe are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.90 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 29 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 6W 11D 12L in their last 29 games (1.00 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 6W 8D 15L in their last 29 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Mallorca away?
Getafe's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.57 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Getafe or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mallorca in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Getafe
2
Draws
4
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 4, Mallorca have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Getafe 3-1 Mallorca.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 36%, Mallorca 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Getafe) and 57% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 36% of games; Mallorca in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Getafe's recent matches and 57% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Getafe's recent games and 57% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Mallorca tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Mallorca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Mallorca 1-0 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.83 xG and Mallorca 0.89 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Mallorca landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Mallorca attack 0.80 / defence 1.64, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 59% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 17%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 34%, Mallorca 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.00 PPG, Mallorca 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.