Espanyol 1-0 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RCDE Stadium plays host to Espanyol versus Valladolid in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Espanyol's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at RCDE Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Valladolid have collected 1.00 PPG across 8 La Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Espanyol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Valladolid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 75% versus Valladolid 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 75% | Valladolid 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.88 xG and Valladolid 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 1.003 / defence 1.327 | Valladolid attack 0.959 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.196. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.405 — this is suppressing Espanyol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Espanyol games / 8 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 46% | Draw 22% | Valladolid 31%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Valladolid 3.23. Espanyol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Espanyol at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Espanyol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Espanyol 50% | Valladolid 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 46% | Draw 22% | Valladolid 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Espanyol 1.88 / Valladolid 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 1.003 / def 1.327 | Valladolid attack 0.959 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Valladolid xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Valladolid kick off?
Espanyol vs Valladolid kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Valladolid?
Espanyol 1 - 0 Valladolid.
Where is Espanyol vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Valladolid part of?
Espanyol vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 46% chance of winning, Valladolid a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Espanyol and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Valladolid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Espanyol and Valladolid in?
Espanyol (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Valladolid (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Espanyol's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Valladolid's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.96x) against Espanyol's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
46%
2.16
22%
4.49
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Espanyol xG
Total xG
3.41
1.52
Valladolid xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
5%
20.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.52 for Valladolid, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Valladolid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Espanyol's recent record stands at 1W 3D 4L from 8 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valladolid, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 4L across 8 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Espanyol against 1.00 for Valladolid. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Espanyol have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Valladolid's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valladolid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Espanyol are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.75 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Espanyol have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Valladolid away?
Valladolid's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 0.25 PPG; Valladolid away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Espanyol have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valladolid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Espanyol
0
Draws
2
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 2, Valladolid have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when Espanyol 2-1 Valladolid.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Espanyol, 75% for Valladolid — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Espanyol and 75% for Valladolid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Valladolid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Espanyol's games and 75% of Valladolid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Espanyol vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Espanyol's matches and 75% of Valladolid's.
Do Espanyol and Valladolid tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Espanyol edge out Valladolid 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Valladolid 1-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.88 xG and Valladolid 1.52 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Espanyol fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Valladolid landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 1.00 / defence 1.33 against Valladolid attack 0.96 / defence 1.41, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 46% | Draw 22% | Valladolid 31%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 75%, Valladolid 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Valladolid's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 0.75 PPG, Valladolid 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Valladolid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.