Espanyol 3-0 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 47%, yet in-form Levante provide a compelling counter-argument — this Espanyol vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Levante travel to RCDE Stadium to take on Espanyol. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Espanyol haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Espanyol's home record at RCDE Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Levante — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Levante haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Levante away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levante are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Espanyol have won 1, Levante 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Espanyol trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Levante trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 58% versus Levante 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 50% | Levante 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.50 xG and Levante 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.843 / defence 1.010 | Levante attack 0.991 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.093. Data: 38 Espanyol games / 38 Levante games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Espanyol 47% | Draw 26% | Levante 28%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Levante 3.57. Espanyol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Espanyol as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levante (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Espanyol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Espanyol 50% | Levante 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 47% | Draw 26% | Levante 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Espanyol 1.50 / Levante 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.843 / def 1.010 | Levante attack 0.991 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Levante xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Levante kick off?
Espanyol vs Levante kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Levante?
Espanyol 3 - 0 Levante.
Where is Espanyol vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Levante part of?
Espanyol vs Levante is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 47% chance of winning, Levante a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Espanyol and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Levante?
Record (4 meetings): Espanyol 1W | Draws 3 | Levante 0W.
What form are Espanyol and Levante in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Espanyol (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Espanyol's attack at 0.84x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.89
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.60
1.09
Levante xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.09 for Levante, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Espanyol have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 10D 16L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. Espanyol haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Levante's form line: 11W 9D 18L from 38 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. Levante haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Espanyol on 1.21 PPG, Levante on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Espanyol have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
On the road, Levante have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Espanyol are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.24 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 38 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Pre-Season
Levante
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Levante in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Levante have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Levante away?
Espanyol's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.37 PPG; Levante away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Espanyol won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Espanyol's record when hosting Levante specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Espanyol
3
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Levante?
From 5 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 2, Levante have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Espanyol 3-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Levante?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 53%, Levante 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Espanyol) and 47% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Espanyol have failed to score in 26% of games; Levante in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Espanyol's recent matches and 47% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Espanyol's recent games and 47% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Levante tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Levante in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Espanyol run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Levante 3-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.50 xG and Levante 1.09 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Espanyol beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levante landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Levante attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 47% | Draw 26% | Levante 28%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 50%, Levante 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Levante's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.21 PPG, Levante 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.