Espanyol 0-0 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 45%, yet in-form Levante provide a compelling counter-argument — this Espanyol vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Levante travel to RCDE Stadium to take on Espanyol. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 April 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Espanyol's home record at RCDE Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Espanyol are significantly better at RCDE Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Levante — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Levante away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levante are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Espanyol have won 1, Levante 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Espanyol trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Levante trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 59% versus Levante 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 53% | Levante 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.44 xG and Levante 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.820 / defence 1.177 | Levante attack 0.800 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.146. Data: 70 Espanyol games / 32 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 45% | Draw 26% | Levante 28%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Levante 3.57. Espanyol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Espanyol as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levante (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Espanyol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Espanyol 50% | Levante 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 45% | Draw 26% | Levante 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Espanyol 1.44 / Levante 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.820 / def 1.177 | Levante attack 0.800 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Levante xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Levante kick off?
Espanyol vs Levante kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 27 April 2026 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Levante?
Espanyol 0 - 0 Levante.
Where is Espanyol vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Levante part of?
Espanyol vs Levante is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 45% chance of winning, Levante a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Espanyol and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Levante?
Record (3 meetings): Espanyol 1W | Draws 2 | Levante 0W.
What form are Espanyol and Levante in?
Espanyol (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Levante (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Espanyol's attack at 0.82x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.79
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.52
1.08
Levante xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.08 for Levante, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Espanyol have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 10W 8D 14L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Levante's form line: 8W 8D 16L from 32 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Espanyol on 1.19 PPG, Levante on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Espanyol have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Levante have gone 3W 3D 9L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Espanyol are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.16 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 32 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Levante in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 games (1.19 PPG), while Levante have gone 8W 8D 16L in their last 32 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Levante away?
Espanyol's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.40 PPG; Levante away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Espanyol won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Espanyol's record when hosting Levante specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Espanyol
3
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Levante?
From 5 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 2, Levante have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Espanyol 3-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Levante?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 60%, Levante 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Espanyol) and 40% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Levante in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Espanyol's recent matches and 40% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Espanyol's recent games and 40% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Levante tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Levante in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Espanyol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol and Levante finished level at 0-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.44 xG and Levante 1.08 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Espanyol fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Levante landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Levante attack 0.80 / defence 1.12, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 45% | Draw 26% | Levante 28%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 53%, Levante 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Levante's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.19 PPG, Levante 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.