Espanyol 2-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to RCDE Stadium to face Espanyol in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 18 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Espanyol (all games): 2W 3D 3L across 8 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.12 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Espanyol have posted 2W 1D 1L at RCDE Stadium — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RCDE Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.12 — Espanyol are significantly better at RCDE Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 3L from 8 games (0.88 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.12 for Espanyol, 0.88 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Espanyol half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 38% versus Cadiz 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Espanyol 38% | Cadiz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.19 xG and Cadiz 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.928 / defence 1.076 | Cadiz attack 0.977 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 0.919. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Espanyol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Espanyol games / 8 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 40% | Draw 31% | Cadiz 29%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Cadiz 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Espanyol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Espanyol 50% | Cadiz 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 40% | Draw 31% | Cadiz 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Espanyol 1.19 / Cadiz 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.928 / def 1.076 | Cadiz attack 0.977 / def 1.288 | league avg home 0.995 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Cadiz xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Cadiz kick off?
Espanyol vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Cadiz?
Espanyol 2 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Espanyol vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Cadiz part of?
Espanyol vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 40% chance of winning, Cadiz a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Espanyol and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Espanyol and Cadiz in?
Espanyol (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-3L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Espanyol's attack at 0.93x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.98x) against Espanyol's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
40%
2.47
31%
3.27
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.16
0.96
Cadiz xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.96 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Espanyol have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 2W 3D 3L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz's form line: 1W 4D 3L from 8 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Espanyol against 0.88 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Espanyol have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cadiz have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.88 PPG overall record — Cadiz travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Espanyol are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.88 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cadiz in 62%.
Defensively: Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Cadiz away?
Espanyol's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 2.00 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Espanyol or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cadiz in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Espanyol have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Espanyol
3
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Cadiz?
From 4 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 1, Cadiz have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2023, when Espanyol 0-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Cadiz?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Espanyol, 100% for Cadiz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Espanyol and 67% for Cadiz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Espanyol's games and 100% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Espanyol vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Espanyol's matches and 67% of Cadiz's.
Do Espanyol and Cadiz tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Espanyol cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Cadiz 2-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.19 xG and Cadiz 0.96 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Espanyol beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cadiz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Cadiz attack 0.98 / defence 1.29, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 40% | Draw 31% | Cadiz 29%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 38%, Cadiz 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.12 PPG, Cadiz 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.