Espanyol 3-3 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Espanyol face Almeria.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Espanyol host Almeria at RCDE Stadium in La Liga (matchday 38). Kick-off is Sunday 4 June 2023 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Espanyol stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Espanyol have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Almeria have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Almeria's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Espanyol 0.90 PPG, Almeria 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Espanyol's last 10 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Espanyol have won 0, Almeria 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2023, ended Espanyol 1–3 Almeria — a Almeria win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Espanyol in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Almeria in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Espanyol 76% and Almeria 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 65% | Almeria 60%). Note also that Almeria surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Espanyol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 2.09 xG and Almeria 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 1.028 / defence 1.459 | Almeria attack 1.019 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.034. Almeria's defence rating of 1.381 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Espanyol's projected output up. Espanyol's defence rating of 1.459 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almeria's projected output up. Data: built from Espanyol's last 75 games and Almeria's last 37.
Result probabilities: Espanyol 51% | Draw 21% | Almeria 28%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 1.98 | Draw 4.75 | Almeria 3.52. Espanyol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.09 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Espanyol at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Espanyol's last 10 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Espanyol 70% (last 10 home games) | Almeria 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, matchday 38 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 June 2023 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 51% | Draw 21% | Almeria 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Espanyol 2.09 / Almeria 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 1.028 / def 1.459 | Almeria attack 1.019 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Almeria xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Espanyol vs Almeria FAQs
What time does Espanyol vs Almeria kick off?
Espanyol vs Almeria kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 4 June 2023 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Almeria?
Espanyol 3 - 3 Almeria.
Where is Espanyol vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Almeria part of?
Espanyol vs Almeria is a La Liga fixture (matchday 38) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 51% chance of winning, Almeria a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Espanyol and Almeria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Espanyol vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Espanyol's attack rating (1.03) and Almeria's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Espanyol's last 75 games and Almeria's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
51%
1.98
21%
4.75
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Espanyol xG
Total xG
3.63
1.54
Almeria xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
4%
28.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Espanyol vs Almeria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.54 for Almeria, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Espanyol have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 8W 12D 17L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Almeria's form line: 11W 7D 19L from 37 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Espanyol on 0.97 PPG, Almeria on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Espanyol have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 18 home games (4W 6D 8L).
On the road, Almeria have gone 1W 4D 13L from their last 18 away games — 0.39 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Espanyol are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.24 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Espanyol have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Almeria in 65%.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
Espanyol (Home) vs Almeria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Espanyol
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
❓ Espanyol vs Almeria Form FAQs
What form are Espanyol and Almeria in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 8W 12D 17L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 7D 19L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Almeria away?
Espanyol's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.00 PPG; Almeria away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from January 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 4 June 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Espanyol
1
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Espanyol vs Almeria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Almeria?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Espanyol have won 0, Almeria have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Almeria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 June 2023: Espanyol 3-3 Almeria.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Almeria?
Almeria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Espanyol at 67%, Almeria at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Espanyol and 61% for Almeria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almeria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Espanyol vs Almeria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Espanyol and Almeria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Espanyol's games and 67% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Espanyol and Almeria matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Espanyol's matches and 61% of Almeria's.
Do Espanyol and Almeria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Espanyol's recent matches and 72% of Almeria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Espanyol and Almeria share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol and Almeria finished level at 3-3 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 2.09 xG and Almeria 1.54 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Espanyol beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almeria outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 1.03 / defence 1.46 against Almeria attack 1.02 / defence 1.38, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 51% | Draw 21% | Almeria 28%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 65%, Almeria 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 0.97 PPG, Almeria 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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