Celta Vigo vs Levante – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Levante travel to to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Celta Vigo have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo at this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Celta Vigo 1.40 PPG, Levante 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 1 for Levante and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Levante winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Levante in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 61% versus Levante 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 44% | Levante 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.70 xG and Levante 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.995 / defence 1.066 | Levante attack 0.706 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.277. Data: 47 Celta Vigo games / 46 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 53% | Draw 27% | Levante 20%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Levante 5.00. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Levante 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 53% | Draw 27% | Levante 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Celta Vigo 1.70 / Levante 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.995 / def 1.066 | Levante attack 0.706 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Levante xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Levante kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Levante part of?
Celta Vigo vs Levante is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 53% chance of winning, Levante a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Celta Vigo and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Levante?
Record (4 meetings): Celta Vigo 2W | Draws 1 | Levante 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Levante in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Levante (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.99x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.69
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.66
0.96
Levante xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
27.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.96 for Levante, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 16W 17D 13L from 46 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 21L across 46 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.41 PPG, Levante on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levante's away record stands at 4W 7D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.28 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Levante in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 16W 17D 13L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Levante have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Levante away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.30 PPG; Levante away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Levante in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Levante runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Levante specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Levante have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-3 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Levante?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 65%, Levante 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Celta Vigo) and 44% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Levante in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 44% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 44% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Levante tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Levante in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.