Cadiz 2-0 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Valladolid meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Cadiz (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Cadiz have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Cadiz are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla than their overall form suggests.
Valladolid's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valladolid away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cadiz, 0 for Valladolid and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Cadiz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Valladolid — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 35% versus Valladolid 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 32% | Valladolid 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.54 xG and Valladolid 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.793 / defence 1.095 | Valladolid attack 0.797 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.076. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Cadiz games / 34 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 51% | Draw 26% | Valladolid 23%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Valladolid 4.35. Cadiz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Valladolid 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 51% | Draw 26% | Valladolid 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Cadiz 1.54 / Valladolid 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.793 / def 1.095 | Valladolid attack 0.797 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Valladolid xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Valladolid kick off?
Cadiz vs Valladolid kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Valladolid?
Cadiz 2 - 0 Valladolid.
Where is Cadiz vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Valladolid part of?
Cadiz vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 51% chance of winning, Valladolid a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cadiz and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Valladolid?
Record (1 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 0 | Valladolid 0W.
What form are Cadiz and Valladolid in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Valladolid (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Valladolid's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.80x) against Cadiz's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.90
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.48
0.94
Valladolid xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
5%
20.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.94 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Valladolid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Cadiz have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 11D 15L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Valladolid's form line: 10W 5D 19L from 34 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Cadiz against 1.03 for Valladolid. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L).
On the road, Valladolid have gone 3W 2D 12L from 17 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.88 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 34 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Valladolid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 10W 5D 19L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Valladolid away?
Cadiz's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.24 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Valladolid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Valladolid in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cadiz
0
Draws
0
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Valladolid?
From 2 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 2, Valladolid have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Cadiz 2-0 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Valladolid?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 35%, Valladolid 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Cadiz) and 65% (Valladolid).
On the defensive side: Cadiz have failed to score in 47% of games; Valladolid in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Cadiz's recent matches and 47% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Cadiz's recent games and 65% of Valladolid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Valladolid tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Valladolid 2-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.54 xG and Valladolid 0.94 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valladolid landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against Valladolid attack 0.80 / defence 1.33, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 51% | Draw 26% | Valladolid 23%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 32%, Valladolid 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valladolid's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.03 PPG, Valladolid 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.