Cadiz 1-0 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rayo Vallecano make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to face Cadiz in La Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cadiz have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rayo Vallecano (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Cadiz, 1.60 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cadiz 1W, Rayo Vallecano 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–5 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 43% versus Rayo Vallecano 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 37% | Rayo Vallecano 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.04 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.916 / defence 0.990 | Rayo Vallecano attack 1.078 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 0.990. Data: 60 Cadiz games / 60 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 35% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 35%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Rayo Vallecano 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cadiz 40% | Rayo Vallecano 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 35% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Cadiz 1.04 / Rayo Vallecano 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.916 / def 0.990 | Rayo Vallecano attack 1.078 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.344 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Rayo Vallecano xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano?
Cadiz 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 35% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (3 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 0 | Rayo Vallecano 2W.
What form are Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano in?
Cadiz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.92) and Rayo Vallecano's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (1.08x) against Cadiz's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.34
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.10
1.06
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.06 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cadiz come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 22D 25L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rayo Vallecano sit at 1.27 PPG from 60 outings (20W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Cadiz against 1.27 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cadiz's home form reads 6W 14D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Rayo Vallecano have taken 0.97 points per game from 30 outings (7W 8D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.13 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 13W 22D 25L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Cadiz's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.07 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rayo Vallecano won 5-1 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
2
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 47%, Rayo Vallecano 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cadiz and 37% for Rayo Vallecano.
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 37% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cadiz's recent matches and 47% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cadiz's recent games and 37% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cadiz defy the odds to beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.04 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.06 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Rayo Vallecano attack 1.08 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 35% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 35%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 37%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.02 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.