Cadiz 1-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Levante at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cadiz host Levante at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.71 xG and Levante 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Levante attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.050. Data: 0 Cadiz games / 0 Levante games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 25% | Draw 33% | Levante 42%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Levante 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Cadiz's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 25% | Draw 33% | Levante 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Cadiz 0.71 / Levante 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Levante attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Levante (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Levante xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Levante kick off?
Cadiz vs Levante kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Levante?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Levante.
Where is Cadiz vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Levante part of?
Cadiz vs Levante is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 25% chance of winning, Levante a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Cadiz and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Levante in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
25%
4.06
33%
3.03
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Cadiz xG
Total xG
1.73
1.03
Levante xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 18.2 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.03 for Levante, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Pre-Season
Levante
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cadiz
1
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Levante?
From 2 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Levante have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Levante 0-2 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Levante?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Cadiz and Levante share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 1, as Cadiz and Levante drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.71 xG and Levante 1.03 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Levante attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 25% | Draw 33% | Levante 42%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.