Cadiz 1-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cadiz at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cadiz face Getafe.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Getafe meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cadiz's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cadiz's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Getafe (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Getafe away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Cadiz, 1.00 for Getafe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Getafe edge it 2 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2023, ended Cadiz 0–1 Getafe — a Getafe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Getafe — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 38% versus Getafe 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 28% | Getafe 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.10 xG and Getafe 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.742 / defence 0.971 | Getafe attack 1.007 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.124. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Cadiz's last 72 games and Getafe's last 72.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 35% | Draw 29% | Getafe 35%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.82 | Draw 3.43 | Getafe 2.82. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 29%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Cadiz 35% and Getafe 35%, with the draw at 29%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cadiz 40% (last 10 home games) | Getafe 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, matchday 35 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 35% | Draw 29% | Getafe 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Cadiz 1.10 / Getafe 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.742 / def 0.971 | Getafe attack 1.007 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Cadiz and Getafe level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Getafe xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Getafe FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Getafe kick off?
Cadiz vs Getafe kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Getafe?
Cadiz 1 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Cadiz vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Getafe part of?
Cadiz vs Getafe is a La Liga fixture (matchday 35) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 35% chance of winning, Getafe a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cadiz and Getafe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Cadiz vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.74x the league average against Getafe's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (1.01x) against Cadiz's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 72 games and Getafe's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
35%
2.82
29%
3.43
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.20
1.10
Getafe xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Getafe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.10 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz come into this having played 72 games, going 14W 26D 32L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Getafe sit at 1.18 PPG from 72 outings (20W 25D 27L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Cadiz against 1.18 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cadiz's home form reads 11W 14D 11L across their last 36 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Getafe have taken 0.81 points per game from their last 36 away games (5W 14D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.04 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
Cadiz (Home) vs Getafe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
❓ Cadiz vs Getafe Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Getafe in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 14W 26D 32L in their last 72 games (0.94 PPG), while Getafe have gone 20W 25D 27L in their last 72 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Getafe away?
Cadiz's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.31 PPG; Getafe away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Getafe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won Getafe 4-0 Cadiz on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
3
Draws
2
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Getafe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Getafe?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 1, Getafe have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Getafe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2024: Cadiz 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 36%, Getafe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Cadiz) and 44% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 42% of games; Getafe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Getafe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Getafe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cadiz's recent matches and 50% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Getafe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Cadiz's recent games and 44% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Getafe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Cadiz's recent matches and 75% of Getafe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cadiz edge out Getafe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.10 xG and Getafe 1.10 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Getafe attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 35% | Draw 29% | Getafe 35%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 28%, Getafe 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.94 PPG, Getafe 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More La Liga fixtures — matchday 35
All La Liga fixtures →
More Spanish football predictions →