Cadiz 0-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Celta Vigo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Celta Vigo make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to face Cadiz in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Celta Vigo's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Celta Vigo are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cadiz lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Cadiz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 52% versus Celta Vigo 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 39% | Celta Vigo 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.77 xG and Celta Vigo 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.711 / defence 1.416 | Celta Vigo attack 0.954 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.092. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Cadiz games / 23 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 18% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 53%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 5.56 | Draw 3.45 | Celta Vigo 1.89. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 50% | Celta Vigo 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 18% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Cadiz 0.77 / Celta Vigo 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.711 / def 1.416 | Celta Vigo attack 0.954 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Celta Vigo xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Cadiz vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Cadiz 0 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Cadiz vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Celta Vigo part of?
Cadiz vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 18% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 53% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cadiz and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Celta Vigo?
Record (1 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 0 | Celta Vigo 0W.
What form are Cadiz and Celta Vigo in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.71) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.95x) against Cadiz's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
18%
5.45
29%
3.45
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.25
1.48
Celta Vigo xG
5.45
18%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
4%
23.84
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 15.6 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.48 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz's recent record stands at 3W 9D 11L from 23 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 9L across 23 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Celta Vigo by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 0W 6D 5L from 11 games — 0.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 4W 4D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.22 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 3W 9D 11L in their last 23 games (0.78 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Celta Vigo away?
Celta Vigo's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.55 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Celta Vigo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 2, Celta Vigo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Cadiz 2-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Celta Vigo?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 54%, Celta Vigo 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Cadiz and 36% for Celta Vigo.
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo in 54%; Cadiz have failed to score in 46% of games; Celta Vigo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cadiz's recent matches and 27% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Cadiz's recent games and 36% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Cadiz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 24, as Cadiz and Celta Vigo drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.77 xG and Celta Vigo 1.48 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Celta Vigo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.71 / defence 1.42 against Celta Vigo attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 18% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 53%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 39%, Celta Vigo 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Celta Vigo arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.