Cadiz 1-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Almeria travel to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to take on Cadiz. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 December 2022, 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Almeria — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Almeria have posted 0W 1D 6L from 7 away outings — 0.14 PPG. Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cadiz 1.10 PPG, Almeria 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Almeria trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 36% versus Almeria 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 50% | Almeria 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.64 xG and Almeria 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.906 / defence 1.194 | Almeria attack 0.706 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.078. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Cadiz games / 14 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 54% | Draw 25% | Almeria 21%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Almeria 4.76. Cadiz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Almeria 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 54% | Draw 25% | Almeria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Cadiz 1.64 / Almeria 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.906 / def 1.194 | Almeria attack 0.706 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Almeria xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Almeria kick off?
Cadiz vs Almeria kicked off at 18:15 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Almeria?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Cadiz vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Almeria part of?
Cadiz vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 54% chance of winning, Almeria a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cadiz and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Almeria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Almeria in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Almeria (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.91) and Almeria's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.99
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.55
0.91
Almeria xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
4%
24.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.91 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 5D 7L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almeria sit at 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (5W 1D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 0.79 PPG, Almeria on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cadiz's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Almeria have taken 0.14 points per game from 7 outings (0W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.14 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 14 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Almeria in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Almeria have gone 5W 1D 8L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Almeria away?
Cadiz's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.86 PPG; Almeria away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Almeria won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 0, Almeria have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Almeria 6-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Almeria?
Almeria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 29%, Almeria 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cadiz) and 43% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Cadiz have failed to score in 71% of games; Almeria in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Almeria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Cadiz's recent matches and 43% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Cadiz's recent games and 43% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Almeria tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Almeria in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Almeria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 15, as Cadiz and Almeria drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.64 xG and Almeria 0.91 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.91 / defence 1.19 against Almeria attack 0.71 / defence 1.32, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 54% | Draw 25% | Almeria 21%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 50%, Almeria 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.79 PPG, Almeria 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Almeria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.