Cadiz 1-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Almeria travel to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to take on Cadiz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cadiz are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla than their overall form suggests.
Almeria — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Almeria have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Almeria have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cadiz 1.30 PPG, Almeria 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cadiz have won 0, Almeria 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Almeria trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 32% versus Almeria 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 28% | Almeria 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.49 xG and Almeria 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.921 / defence 0.862 | Almeria attack 1.085 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.072. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Cadiz games / 40 Almeria games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 48% | Draw 27% | Almeria 25%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Almeria 4.00. Cadiz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Cadiz 20% | Almeria 80%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 48% | Draw 27% | Almeria 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Cadiz 1.49 / Almeria 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.921 / def 0.862 | Almeria attack 1.085 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Almeria xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Almeria kick off?
Cadiz vs Almeria kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Almeria?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Cadiz vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Almeria part of?
Cadiz vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 48% chance of winning, Almeria a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cadiz and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Almeria?
Record (2 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 2 | Almeria 0W.
What form are Cadiz and Almeria in?
Cadiz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Almeria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.92) and Almeria's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.68
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.49
1.00
Almeria xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.00 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 12D 17L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Almeria sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (11W 8D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Almeria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 1.12 PPG, Almeria on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cadiz's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Cadiz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Almeria have taken 0.42 points per game from 19 outings (1W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 65%.
Defensively: Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Almeria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Almeria in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Almeria away?
Cadiz's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.58 PPG; Almeria away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Almeria in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Almeria won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 0, Almeria have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Almeria 6-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Almeria?
Almeria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 32%, Almeria 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cadiz) and 63% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 37% of games; Almeria in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Almeria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Cadiz's recent matches and 68% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cadiz's recent games and 63% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Almeria tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Almeria in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Almeria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz and Almeria finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.49 xG and Almeria 1.00 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Almeria attack 1.08 / defence 1.25, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 48% | Draw 27% | Almeria 25%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 28%, Almeria 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Almeria's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.12 PPG, Almeria 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almeria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.