Atletico Madrid 3-1 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Madrid at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Madrid host Granada CF at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 August 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atletico Madrid haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Atletico Madrid's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Atletico Madrid are significantly better at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano than their overall form suggests.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Atletico Madrid, 1 for Granada CF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 2.04 xG and Granada CF 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.322 / defence 0.883 | Granada CF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.080. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Atletico Madrid games / 0 Granada CF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 66% | Draw 21% | Granada CF 13%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Granada CF 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano • Kick-off: Monday 14 Aug 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 66% | Draw 21% | Granada CF 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG Atletico Madrid 2.04 / Granada CF 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.322 / def 0.883 | Granada CF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Granada CF xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:30 on Monday 14 August 2023 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF?
Atletico Madrid 3 - 1 Granada CF.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 66% chance of winning, Granada CF a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Granada CF?
Record (2 meetings): Atletico Madrid 0W | Draws 1 | Granada CF 1W.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Granada CF in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.76
13%
7.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.85
0.81
Granada CF xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
7.46
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
13%
7.72
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
2%
57.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.81 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Pre-Season
Granada CF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Madrid and Granada CF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Madrid go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Atletico Madrid
1
Draws
1
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 2, Granada CF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2024, when Granada CF 0-1 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Granada CF?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Granada CF 3-1 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.04 xG and Granada CF 0.81 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atletico Madrid beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.32 / defence 0.88 against Granada CF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 66% | Draw 21% | Granada CF 13%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.