Athletic Club 0-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Athletic Club vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Athletic Club welcome Mallorca to San Mamés Barria. Kick-off is set for Monday 15 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Athletic Club have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Athletic Club haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at San Mamés Barria, Athletic Club have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés Barria than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mallorca haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Mallorca's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Athletic Club at 1.50 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Athletic Club, 1 for Mallorca and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with Mallorca winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Athletic Club in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 45% versus Mallorca 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 34% | Mallorca 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.46 xG and Mallorca 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.065 / defence 0.913 | Mallorca attack 0.935 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.108. Data: 38 Athletic Club games / 38 Mallorca games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 48% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 24%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Mallorca 4.17. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 50% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 48% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Athletic Club 1.46 / Mallorca 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.065 / def 0.913 | Mallorca attack 0.935 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mallorca xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Mallorca kick off?
Athletic Club vs Mallorca kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 15 August 2022 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Athletic Club 0 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Athletic Club vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Mallorca part of?
Athletic Club vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 48% chance of winning, Mallorca a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Athletic Club and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Athletic Club 1W | Draws 0 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Athletic Club and Mallorca in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Athletic Club's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.57
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.40
0.95
Mallorca xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.95 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 14W 13D 11L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. Athletic Club haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Mallorca's form line: 10W 9D 19L from 38 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. Mallorca haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mallorca.
Venue Form
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 1.79 PPG from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 3W 3D 13L from 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Athletic Club are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.95 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 38 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Pre-Season
Mallorca
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 14W 13D 11L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 10W 9D 19L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Mallorca away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.79 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Mallorca in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2024, when Athletic Club won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Athletic Club
5
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 3, Mallorca have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Mallorca?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 53%, Mallorca 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Athletic Club) and 53% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Mallorca in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 47% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Athletic Club's recent games and 53% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Mallorca tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Athletic Club's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club and Mallorca finished level at 0-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.46 xG and Mallorca 0.95 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Athletic Club fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Mallorca landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Mallorca attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 48% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 24%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 34%, Mallorca 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.