Athletic Club 4-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Athletic Club vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Athletic Club welcome Cadiz to San Mamés Barria. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Athletic Club have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at San Mamés Barria this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at San Mamés Barria. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés Barria than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Athletic Club) versus 1.30 (Cadiz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Athletic Club's 10% rate and Cadiz's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Athletic Club, 1 for Cadiz and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2022, ended 4–0 with Athletic Club winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Athletic Club trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Cadiz trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 40% versus Cadiz 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 39% | Cadiz 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.11 xG and Cadiz 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.903 / defence 0.879 | Cadiz attack 0.800 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 0.963. Data: 57 Athletic Club games / 57 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 46% | Draw 32% | Cadiz 22%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Cadiz 4.55. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Cadiz's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 10% | Cadiz 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 46% | Draw 32% | Cadiz 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG Athletic Club 1.11 / Cadiz 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 0.903 / def 0.879 | Cadiz attack 0.800 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.236 / away 0.963 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Cadiz xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Cadiz kick off?
Athletic Club vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 February 2023 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Cadiz?
Athletic Club 4 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Athletic Club vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Cadiz part of?
Athletic Club vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 46% chance of winning, Cadiz a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Athletic Club and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Cadiz?
Record (3 meetings): Athletic Club 2W | Draws 0 | Cadiz 1W.
What form are Athletic Club and Cadiz in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Athletic Club's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Cadiz's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
46%
2.18
32%
3.14
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
1.79
0.68
Cadiz xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.68 for Cadiz, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 21W 18D 18L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz's form line: 12W 22D 23L from 57 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Athletic Club on 1.42 PPG, Cadiz on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 1.79 PPG from 28 outings (15W 5D 8L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 7W 8D 13L from 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Athletic Club are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.86 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 21W 18D 18L in their last 57 games (1.42 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 22D 23L in their last 57 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Cadiz away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.79 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cadiz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Athletic Club and Cadiz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2022, when Athletic Club won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Athletic Club
1
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 4, Cadiz have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Cadiz 0-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Cadiz?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 36%, Cadiz 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Athletic Club) and 39% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Cadiz in 36%; Athletic Club have failed to score in 32% of games; Cadiz in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 39% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Athletic Club's recent games and 39% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Cadiz tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Athletic Club run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Cadiz 4-1 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.11 xG and Cadiz 0.68 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against Cadiz attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 46% | Draw 32% | Cadiz 22%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 39%, Cadiz 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Cadiz's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.42 PPG, Cadiz 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Athletic Club win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Cadiz (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.