Almeria 2-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almeria host Valencia at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Almeria — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almeria have posted 5W 2D 3L at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almeria at 0.90 PPG versus Valencia's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Almeria have won 0, Valencia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almeria in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Valencia in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 63% versus Valencia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 52% | Valencia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.33 xG and Valencia 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.969 / defence 1.163 | Valencia attack 0.658 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.047. Data: 27 Almeria games / 65 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 49% | Draw 28% | Valencia 23%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Valencia 4.35. Almeria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almeria at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almeria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Almeria 60% | Valencia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 49% | Draw 28% | Valencia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Almeria 1.33 / Valencia 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.969 / def 1.163 | Valencia attack 0.658 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Almeria (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Valencia xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Valencia kick off?
Almeria vs Valencia kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Valencia?
Almeria 2 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Almeria vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Valencia part of?
Almeria vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 49% chance of winning, Valencia a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Almeria and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Valencia?
Record (1 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 1 | Valencia 0W.
What form are Almeria and Valencia in?
Almeria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Valencia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Almeria's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.53
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.13
0.80
Valencia xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Almeria and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Almeria and 0.80 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Almeria have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 6D 14L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valencia's form line: 7W 6D 14L from 27 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 1.00 PPG, Valencia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almeria have posted 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (7W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Valencia have gone 1W 3D 9L from 13 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almeria are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.07 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Valencia in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Valencia have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Valencia away?
Almeria's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.77 PPG; Valencia away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almeria and Valencia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Almeria's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
2
Draws
1
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Valencia?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Valencia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Valencia 2-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 62%, Valencia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Almeria) and 38% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Almeria's recent matches and 46% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almeria vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Almeria's recent games and 38% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Valencia tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Valencia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almeria edge out Valencia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Valencia 2-1 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.33 xG and Valencia 0.80 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Valencia attack 0.66 / defence 1.01, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 49% | Draw 28% | Valencia 23%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 52%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 1.00 PPG, Valencia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almeria win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.