Almeria 0-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Almeria at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos plays host to Almeria versus Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 12 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almeria have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 La Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Almeria have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Almeria, 1.20 for Osasuna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Almeria half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almeria 75% and Osasuna 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 50% | Osasuna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.26 xG and Osasuna 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.944 / defence 1.092 | Osasuna attack 0.849 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.221. Data: 4 Almeria games / 42 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 39% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 33%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Osasuna 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almeria as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almeria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Almeria 75% | Osasuna 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 39% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Almeria 1.26 / Osasuna 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.944 / def 1.092 | Osasuna attack 0.849 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Almeria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Osasuna xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Osasuna kick off?
Almeria vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Osasuna?
Almeria 0 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Almeria vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Osasuna part of?
Almeria vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 39% chance of winning, Osasuna a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Almeria and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almeria and Osasuna in?
Almeria (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.94x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.85x) against Almeria's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.62
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.39
1.13
Osasuna xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Almeria and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Almeria and 1.13 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almeria come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Almeria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almeria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.50 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Osasuna go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osasuna won 0-3 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
0
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Osasuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Osasuna have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Almeria 0-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 75%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Almeria) and 50% (Osasuna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Almeria's games and 50% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Almeria's recent games and 50% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Osasuna tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Almeria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Almeria 0-1 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.26 xG and Osasuna 1.13 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Almeria fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Osasuna attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 39% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 33%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 50%, Osasuna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Almeria managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.