Alaves 2-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Villarreal at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estadio de Mendizorroza — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Villarreal's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Villarreal are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Alaves have won 0, Villarreal 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 2–5 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 46% versus Villarreal 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 46% | Villarreal 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.93 xG and Villarreal 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.804 / defence 1.077 | Villarreal attack 0.790 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.150. Data: 33 Alaves games / 33 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 33% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 35%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Villarreal 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 60% | Villarreal 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 33% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Alaves 0.93 / Villarreal 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.804 / def 1.077 | Villarreal attack 0.790 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Villarreal xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Villarreal kick off?
Alaves vs Villarreal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves 2 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Alaves vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Villarreal part of?
Alaves vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 33% chance of winning, Villarreal a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Alaves and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
Record (1 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.80) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
33%
3.04
32%
3.15
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.91
0.98
Villarreal xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 14.5 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Alaves and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Alaves and 0.98 for Villarreal, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Alaves have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 6W 7D 20L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Villarreal's form line: 14W 10D 9L from 33 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 0.76 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 4W 5D 7L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Villarreal's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.61 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 6W 7D 20L in their last 33 games (0.76 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 14W 10D 9L in their last 33 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Villarreal away?
Alaves's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.19 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Alaves or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Villarreal in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2021, when Villarreal won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Villarreal have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Alaves 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 44%, Villarreal 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Alaves and 31% for Villarreal.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 38% of games; Villarreal in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Alaves's recent matches and 38% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Alaves's recent games and 31% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Villarreal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Villarreal 2-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.93 xG and Villarreal 0.98 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Villarreal attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 33% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 35%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 46%, Villarreal 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Alaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm. Villarreal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.