Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Real Madrid (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alaves face Real Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Alaves welcome Real Madrid to Estadio Mendizorrotza. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 December 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alaves — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Alaves have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio Mendizorrotza than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Madrid stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Real Madrid's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Alaves's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Real Madrid, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Alaves.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Real Madrid winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Madrid have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Alaves trading profile (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Real Madrid trading profile (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 47% versus Real Madrid 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 36% | Real Madrid 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.10 xG and Real Madrid 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.873 / defence 0.844 | Real Madrid attack 1.368 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.098. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Alaves games / 54 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 32% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 40%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Real Madrid 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 60% | Real Madrid 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 32% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Alaves 1.10 / Real Madrid 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.873 / def 0.844 | Real Madrid attack 1.368 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Real Madrid xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Real Madrid kick off?
Alaves vs Real Madrid kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Alaves 1 - 2 Real Madrid.
Where is Alaves vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Real Madrid part of?
Alaves vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 32% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Alaves and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Madrid?
Record (6 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 0 | Real Madrid 6W.
What form are Alaves and Real Madrid in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Real Madrid (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alaves's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
32%
3.12
28%
3.60
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.37
1.27
Real Madrid xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Alaves and 1.27 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alaves's recent record stands at 15W 15D 23L from 53 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 37W 8D 8L across 53 games — 2.25 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 10W 8D 9L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Madrid's away record stands at 15W 7D 5L across 27 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.06 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Real Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 15W 15D 23L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 37W 8D 8L in their last 53 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.41 PPG; Real Madrid away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Alaves or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Real Madrid have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2024, when Real Madrid won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Alaves
0
Draws
8
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Madrid?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 0, Real Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 41%, Real Madrid 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Alaves) and 59% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Real Madrid in 41%; Alaves have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Alaves's recent matches and 56% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Alaves's recent games and 59% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Alaves 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Alaves 1-2 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.10 xG and Real Madrid 1.27 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.87 / defence 0.84 against Real Madrid attack 1.37 / defence 0.91, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 32% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 40%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 36%, Real Madrid 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Real Madrid's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.