Alaves 2-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Alaves take on Levante.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Alaves welcome Levante to Estadio de Mendizorroza. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's home record at Estadio de Mendizorroza: 2W 0D 4L from 6 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Levante have posted 0W 2D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Alaves carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Alaves in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Levante in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Alaves 18% | Levante 46%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 18% | Levante 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.04 xG and Levante 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.631 / defence 1.145 | Levante attack 0.840 / defence 1.560. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.070. Alaves's attack strength of 0.631 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.560 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Alaves games / 12 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 33% | Draw 35% | Levante 32%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Levante 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 17% | Levante 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 33% | Draw 35% | Levante 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Alaves 1.04 / Levante 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.631 / def 1.145 | Levante attack 0.840 / def 1.560 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Levante xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Levante kick off?
Alaves vs Levante kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Levante?
Alaves 2 - 1 Levante.
Where is Alaves vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Levante part of?
Alaves vs Levante is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 33% chance of winning, Levante a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Alaves and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Levante in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Levante (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alaves's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.05
35%
2.85
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.07
1.03
Levante xG
3.05
33%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
11%
8.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Alaves and 1.03 for Levante, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 1D 7L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.45 PPG from 11 outings (0W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alaves's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 0.91 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Levante in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Levante have gone 0W 5D 6L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Levante away?
Alaves's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.20 PPG; Levante away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Levante runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alaves's record when hosting Levante specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alaves
0
Draws
2
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Levante have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Levante 2-0 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Alaves 0% BTTS, Levante 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Alaves and 40% for Levante.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 60% of games; Levante in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Alaves's recent matches and 40% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Alaves's recent games and 40% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Levante tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Levante in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Levante 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Levante 2-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.04 xG and Levante 1.03 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.63 / defence 1.15 against Levante attack 0.84 / defence 1.56, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 33% | Draw 35% | Levante 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 18%, Levante 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Alaves arrived the stronger side — 0.91 PPG against 0.45. Form held, and they took the win. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.